U.S. Explores Myanmar’s Rare Earths Despite Uncertain Potential, While Diversifying Supply Away from China Poses Strategic Risks.

Rare earth supply has long been a national security focus for the United States, given China’s dominance in refining and processing, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity.

The U.S. is, therefore, monitoring developments in Myanmar as the country emerges as a significant source of rare earth elements (REE), essential minerals for technologies ranging from electric vehicles and wind turbines to advanced defense systems.

With production expected to reach 31,000 metric tons in 2024, Myanmar has become the third-largest global producer, behind China and the U.S., raising both opportunities and strategic concerns for Washington.

Myanmar’s northern Kachin State, a region now largely under the control of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), has seen rapid growth in mining activity, making the minerals increasingly accessible but also politically complex. Ore from Kachin continues to flow to China for refinement, highlighting the vulnerability of global supply chains to geopolitical disruptions.

India has moved aggressively to secure direct access to Myanmar’s rare earths, engaging both the KIA and the military junta, and exploring partnerships with international allies, including the U.S. and Japan, to develop domestic processing. For Washington, these efforts underscore a broader opportunity of diversifying supply chains and reducing reliance on Chinese refining by supporting allied initiatives in Southeast Asia.

However, challenges are formidable. Kachin is landlocked, with mountainous terrain and limited infrastructure, and ongoing conflict complicates logistics. Environmental and governance issues further increase the risks of large-scale commercial engagement. The U.S. policymakers must weigh these factors carefully in any support for alternative sourcing strategies.

Experts suggest that collaborating with regional partners on small-scale modular refining could help the U.S. and its allies build resilience in the rare earth supply chain. Encouraging sustainable and transparent mining practices in Myanmar may also create opportunities for diversification, but only if paired with long-term investment and careful geopolitical planning.

The rise of Myanmar as a rare earth producer illustrates a critical point for U.S. strategy: control over essential minerals is increasingly a matter of national security. As China maintains its dominance in processing, Washington and its partners must navigate complex political and logistical realities to ensure access to the minerals powering the technologies of tomorrow.